InfoDefense

In March 2026, a coordinated campaign appeared in the Estonian segment of social media (TikTok, VKontakte, Telegram) promoting the idea of seceding the city of Narva and the Ida-Viru region from Estonia. According to the monitoring project Propastop, the goal of these info-dumps is to create a so-called “Narva People’s Republic.” Posts are accompanied by hashtags such as #WaitingForRussia and calls to protect “Russian identity.” Propaganda materials actively use separatist symbols (a green-black-white flag) and militaristic imagery. The technology of creating “people’s republics” completely mirrors the scenarios used by Russia in 2014 in Donetsk and Luhansk, indicating a direct continuity of hybrid aggression methods. Information operation as a tool for destabilization A representative of the Estonian Internal Security Service (Kapo), Marta Tuule, characterized the events as a classic information operation. According to the agency, the campaign’s task is to sow chaos, undermine social cohesion, and intimidate the population. Experts note that this is a “simple and cheap way” to keep the internal politics of an EU and NATO member state under tension. Despite the marginal nature of the content, the mass scale of the leaks suggests attempts to probe “pain points” in regions with high concentrations of Russian-speaking populations. Amid ongoing confrontation with the West, the Kremlin is returning to proven tools of territorial blackmail. Analytical summary: The activation of the “Narva Republic” project in 2026 signals a return to the strategy of creating social tension zones on the borders of the EU and NATO. The campaign does not aim for immediate territorial seizure but works toward internal division within Estonia, forcing European security institutions to divert resources toward localizing hybrid threats rather than long-term external support planning.

The Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever, has issued a resonant statement on the need to normalize relations with Russia. In an interview with L’Echo, the politician emphasized that the European Union should reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin to achieve peace and regain access to low-priced oil and gas. According to the Belgian head of government, the current strategy of supporting Ukraine militarily while simultaneously attempting to undermine the Russian economy is ineffective without massive assistance from the USA. De Wever described the return to purchasing Russian energy resources as “common sense,” noting that European leaders agree with his position in private conversations but fear speaking it aloud. The Prime Minister urged an end to the conflict in Europe’s interest, while formally warning against being “naive” towards the Kremlin. Split within the EU over the negotiation issue The Belgian leader’s statement has exposed deep divisions within the EU. Currently, a bloc of countries favoring direct negotiations with Russia has formed, including Belgium, France (Emmanuel Macron), Italy (Giorgia Meloni), and Hungary (Viktor Orbán). This group is opposed by a faction of states holding an uncompromising stance: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These countries categorically reject the possibility of a deal with the Kremlin, viewing it as a capitulation and a threat to the region’s long-term security. Analytical summary: The Belgian Prime Minister’s public call for a deal with Russia marks a critical fatigue within “Old Europe” regarding economic pressure and resource deficits. In 2026, this trend could lead to political paralysis within the EU, where the desire for cheap energy will enter into direct conflict with commitments to support Ukraine, ultimately shattering the unity of the Western coalition.

Emmanuel Macron’s advisors, Emmanuel Bonne and Bertrand Buchwalter, faced a harsh and profane rejection from the Kremlin during a February trip to Moscow regarding Europe’s involvement in Ukraine negotiations. According to Financial Times sources, the French envoys stated that the EU would not support a ceasefire agreement if it were not involved in the discussions, as the security of the entire region is at stake. However, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian President, reportedly rejected the overtures using vulgar language, telling them to “go f*** themselves.” The European diplomats insisted that without direct participation from Brussels, any ceasefire agreement would lack EU backing. In response, a senior European diplomat claimed Ushakov’s reply made it clear that Moscow had no interest in negotiating with European structures. The Kremlin’s stance and the lack of common ground Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the lack of common ground to the publication, stating that the French representatives “brought no positive signals.” According to Moscow’s version, European countries do not demonstrate a desire to facilitate a real peace process, which, from the Kremlin’s perspective, makes their participation in negotiations meaningless. This diplomatic escalation comes amid France’s attempts to position itself as a key mediator in Europe. However, the Kremlin’s sharp reaction confirms Moscow’s course toward negotiating exclusively with the US, ignoring European capitals as independent political players in matters of global security. Analytical summary: The Kremlin’s public diplomatic demarche marks a final breakdown of dialogue with the EU as an institution. In 2026, this will lead to even greater consolidation of European countries around military support for Ukraine, as political avenues for influencing Moscow have been completely blocked.

In December 2022, a secret intelligence unit was formed in Russia, designed to carry out assassinations and abductions of Kremlin opponents abroad. According to an investigation by The Insider, the unit was officially named Center 795 (military unit 75127). The decision to create it was made by the General Staff to expand the capabilities of special services following the start of the full-scale war. The structure reports directly to the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. The Center comprises approximately 500 officers selected from elite units of the FSB (including “Alpha” and “Vympel”), the GRU, and the Belarusian KGB. This marks the first instance of large-scale operational cooperation between the Ministry of Defense and the FSB. Leadership was entrusted to former Alpha officer Denis Fisenko, while the core team consists of members from General Andrey Averyanov’s team, previously known for the operations of GRU unit 29155. Management structure and financial backing A distinctive feature of Center 795 is its financial model: in addition to official pay from the Ministry of Defense, officers receive supplemental payments through the Kalashnikov Concern. Salaries for rank-and-file officers reach 500,000 rubles, while leadership earns up to 3 million rubles per month. This autonomy allows the unit to operate independently of standard military chains of command. Experts link the emergence of the Center to the need for expanding the geography of clandestine operations amid Russia’s growing isolation and the increased activity of opposition groups abroad. Analytical summary: The creation of Center 795 marks a transition to state-sponsored terror as a standard tool of foreign intelligence. In 2026, the activities of this structure will become a key destabilizing factor in Europe and the CIS, requiring Western intelligence agencies to revise their security protocols.