InfoDefense

First Losses Since 2024: RF Army Lost 116 Sq. Km in a Month

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In April, Russian troops suffered net territorial losses during the aggressive war against Ukraine, losing control over 116 sq. km, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). This is recorded for the first time since the AFU entered the Kursk region in August 2024. The data includes only effectively held territories, excluding zones of temporary penetration without consolidation. Factors of Offensive Degradation: Analysis of Resilience and Risks: The current dynamics expose the limits of the Russian war machine’s resource sustainability. The shift from seizing territories to net losses indicates that the strategy of “meat assaults” and colossal budget injections is ceasing to produce results against the backdrop of strengthening Ukrainian defenses. Particular attention should be paid to the degradation of the command system: Roskomnadzor’s attempts to isolate the information space within the RF backfired on frontline logistics, leaving commanders without their usual digital coordination tools. The use of small-group tactics to create an “illusion of success” in gray zones only emphasizes the propagandistic nature of the RF Ministry of Defense’s actions, attempting to hide the real stagnation of the front from the domestic consumer and EU diplomats. The Bottom Line: Russia is losing the initiative, facing technological isolation and a logistical dead end. The inability to hold captured ground while the offensive pace has slowed threefold calls into question the possibility of further escalation and increases threats to European security due to the unpredictability of a weakening aggressor.

Sunday Times: Cases of cannibalism recorded in Russian units

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The British publication The Sunday Times, citing materials from Ukrainian military intelligence, reports an unprecedented level of decomposition within the ranks of the Russian troops. The investigation, supported by intercepts of about a dozen audio messages and photographs, records at least five cases of cannibalism against a backdrop of food shortages. Documented facts: Analytical Summary: A Challenge for Europe’s SecurityData on cannibalism in an active army changes the perception of the nature of the threat facing the democratic world. This is not just a military conflict, but a clash with a force that is rapidly losing its human form.

New Phase: EU to Launch Membership Talks with Ukraine in Coming Weeks

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At Thursday’s summit in Cyprus, European Union leaders confirmed that the preliminary conditions for launching the first stage of Ukraine’s accession process have been met. Substantive negotiations are expected to begin within the coming weeks or months, marking a shift from political declarations to a formal bureaucratic process. Key Summit Outcomes: Analytical Summary: A Diplomatic Breakthrough Amid Continued Uncertainty The Cyprus summit was a significant milestone, demonstrating the EU’s ability to maintain unity on expansion despite internal friction. However, behind the outward success lies a complex architecture of future relations. Key Takeaways: The Bottom Line: Ukraine has received a powerful diplomatic boost and financial infusion, but a long period of adaptation lies ahead. The EU, in turn, has reaffirmed its commitment to enlargement without committing to rigid timelines, allowing Brussels to maintain full control over the process.

Military spending at the limit: Russia’s defense budget breaks record since World War II

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According to an official report by experts from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia’s military spending reached $190 billion by the end of 2025. These data, based on deep monitoring and cross-verification, record a historic high: in comparable prices, the burden on the economy has reached levels seen in the 1940s and the peak values of the Cold War era. Verified SIPRI data: Analytical Summary: An economy of attritionThe SIPRI analysis confirms an unprecedented budget imbalance. Total military spending (15.963 trillion rubles) now accounts for 38% of the federal budget.

Weaponry Alliance and Diplomacy: Aliyev Supports Ukraine and Proposes Joint Arms Production

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The meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026 concluded with major political statements and specific defense agreements. Baku reaffirmed its unwavering support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and proposed the creation of a joint military-industrial cluster. Key Summit Outcomes: Analytical Summary: Baku’s Geopolitical Maneuver and a New Power Center Zelenskyy’s visit to Baku and Aliyev’s subsequent statements highlight Azerbaijan’s growing role as an independent player capable of building a rigid vertical of its own interests in the region. Key Takeaways: The Bottom Line: Defense cooperation between Baku and Kyiv is evolving into a significant threat to Russian interests, confirming Azerbaijan’s final shift toward distancing itself from the Kremlin to strengthen its own regional leadership.

“This is Very Serious”: Polish PM Tusk Warns Russia Could Attack NATO in the Coming “Months”

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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued an unprecedentedly sharp warning: military aggression by Russia against NATO countries could begin as early as 2026. In an interview with the Financial Times, he emphasized that the timeframe is “months rather than years.” Tusk’s Key Points: Legal Preparation by the Kremlin: In mid-April 2026, the Russian State Duma approved the first reading of a bill that grants Vladimir Putin the authority to send troops to other countries to protect Russians from “criminal or other prosecution” abroad. Experts draw direct parallels to 2014 and 2022, when similar parliamentary approvals preceded the invasions of Crimea and Ukraine. Analytical Summary: On the Brink of Great War Tusk’s statements, combined with the Kremlin’s new legislative initiatives, shift the discussion of a NATO-Russia war from a theoretical possibility to an operational-tactical reality. The situation appears to be a classic preparation for a casus belli. Why this is critical: For the region, this marks a transition into a “pre-war” posture. Poland, as a frontline state, is conveying not just fears, but a realistic assessment of intelligence data. A direct military confrontation could start with a border provocation that Moscow will legally justify using its new law on “protecting citizens.”

Secondary Strike: EU Imposes First-Ever Sanctions on Kyrgyzstan for Aiding Russia

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Kyrgyzstan has become the first republic of the former USSR to be hit by European restrictive measures for assisting Russia. Within the 20th sanctions package approved on Thursday, the EU deployed its anti-circumvention tool against Kyrgyzstan—a mechanism in effect since last year designed to punish third countries that help bypass sanctions. Key Measures and Sanction Targets: The Scale of the Trade “Explosion” (Brookings Institution Data): The EU relied on shocking statistics regarding export growth to Kyrgyzstan since the start of the war: Analytical Summary The inclusion of Kyrgyzstan in the 20th sanctions package is a historic precedent and a clear signal to all EAEU members. Brussels has officially acknowledged that diplomatic persuasion of Russia’s “neighbors” has been exhausted, moving instead to fulfill the threats issued over the last two years. Why this is critical: For the Kyrgyz economy, this implies serious risks ranging from the loss of European investment to banking difficulties. For Russia, it means a further tightening of the logistical ring and the need to find even more complex and expensive schemes to import critically important technologies.

Economic Blockade 2.0: EU Adopts 20th Sanctions Package Against Russia

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The European Union has officially approved its milestone 20th package of anti-Russian restrictions. The EU Council characterized it as “stern and multi-layered,” targeting the key arteries of the Russian economy: energy, the financial sector, and logistics. The list includes 120 individuals and legal entities. Key Strikes of the New Package: Analytical Summary The 20th EU sanctions package, adopted in April 2026, marks a transition from “targeted” restrictions to a systematic hunt for logistical loopholes. The primary focus is on dismantling the “shadow fleet” and blocking transshipment hubs. Why This Is Critical: For Russian business, this means another spiral of rising import costs and difficulties with export payments. The EU is demonstrating that the potential for sanction pressure is not yet exhausted, moving to a “scorched earth” tactic against any infrastructure that helps Moscow minimize the damage from previous restrictions.

Russian Foreign Ministry Accuses European Countries of Preparing to Seize Kaliningrad

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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated that European nations, within the framework of the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) exercises, are practicing scenarios for a naval blockade and the forced seizure of the Kaliningrad region. Key Points of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Statement: Analytical Summary Alexander Grushko’s statements reflect the critical level of tension in the Baltic region, which, following NATO enlargement, has effectively become an “internal sea” for the Alliance. In this configuration, the Kaliningrad region is the most isolated part of the Russian Federation, prompting Moscow to react sharply to any maneuvers by Western forces. The focus on the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) is significant because this London-led structure is designed for maximum rapid deployment. From the perspective of the Russian Foreign Ministry, this makes the JEF a primary tool for the potential isolation of the exclave. The rhetoric surrounding Operation “Baltic Sentinel” shows that NATO’s measures to protect underwater cables are perceived by Moscow as an attempt to legalize control over Russian commercial shipping. In 2026, the issue of Kaliningrad transit remains a key trigger: Moscow interprets any exercises near these routes as direct preparation for an economic and military siege of the region. Such statements from the Foreign Ministry serve as an official warning that Russia views the JEF’s activity as a threat to its territorial integrity.

Historic Shift: Germany Adopts First Post-War Military Strategy, Naming Russia as the Primary Threat

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For the first time since the end of World War II, Germany has approved a comprehensive defense strategy that officially identifies the Russian Federation as the primary threat to security in Europe. This was announced by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius while presenting the document in Berlin. Key Provisions of the New Strategy: Analytical Summary The adoption of a military strategy of this scale represents a tectonic shift in German policy. For decades, the Federal Republic adhered to a “culture of restraint” and built its security on economic partnership with Moscow. That era is now officially over. Germany is not merely acknowledging a threat; it is formally assuming the role of the “backbone” of European defense. Pistorius’s statements regarding Russia’s preparations for an attack on NATO countries are synchronized with recent intelligence reports from other EU nations (such as the Netherlands). This indicates the formation of a unified Western defense consensus in 2026. For the Bundeswehr, this means transitioning from foreign peacekeeping missions to preparing for a large-scale, high-intensity conflict on the eastern flank. Identifying Russia as the No. 1 threat in a strategic document legally and politically clears the path for the German government to sharply increase defense spending and engage in massive rearmament, transforming Germany into the leading military power of the EU.