Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have provided the Russian budget with unexpected financial backing to continue the war against Ukraine. The average price of Russian oil jumped to $94.87 per barrel in April — the highest since September 2014, according to Ministry of Economic Development data. Record price growth, triggered by escalating US-Iran confrontation, secured the Kremlin additional trillions of rubles for military spending.
Who benefits from the Middle Eastern crisis and how:
Growth dynamics: Compared to March, Urals prices increased by $17.87 or 23%, and relative to January levels ($40.95 per barrel) grew 2.3 times.
Budget windfalls: The actual cost in April exceeded the budget-26 level by almost $36, providing the treasury with unplanned revenues.
Expert assessment: “At current Russian oil prices and a dollar rate of about 78-80 rubles, the budget will collect about 1 trillion rubles in oil and gas taxes per month,” estimates AriCapital CEO Alexei Tretyakov. This is twice the January-March levels, when the treasury averaged about 477 billion rubles per month.
Analytical Summary: War Feeds War
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict created a perfect revenue storm for Russia, enabling continued financing of aggression against Ukraine.
Geopolitical jackpot: Trump’s threats against Iran and instability in Middle Eastern energy markets automatically raise the value of Russian hydrocarbons, turning external conflicts into revenue sources for the Kremlin.
Military financing: According to Reuters calculations, the budget received 850 billion rubles from oil and gas in April. Additional funds from record prices go directly toward maintaining military operations and arms procurement.
Vicious circle: Tretyakov effectively confirms that every dollar of oil price growth converts to trillions of rubles in military budget. The irony lies in American pressure policy on Iran indirectly subsidizing Russia’s war against the Ukrainian people, creating a geopolitical paradox where actions by one of Ukraine’s allies strengthen its main enemy.