The Russian financial market is facing a record-breaking deficit of foreign currency from its largest players. According to the Central Bank, in February, the 29 largest exporters cut their net sales of foreign currency by 31%, down to $3.5 billion.
This is the lowest figure since the data was first published in November 2022. Compared to February 2025, the volume of currency entering the exchange has plummeted nearly threefold.
The “Cheap Oil” Effect
The primary reason for this collapse is a time lag: in February, the economy processed payments for December and January, when the price of Russian Urals crude fluctuated between $39–41 per barrel.
Economist Egor Susin notes that low export earnings from previous months are now draining the domestic currency market. According to IEA estimates, Russia’s total oil export revenues in February amounted to $9.5 billion, which is $4 billion less than a year ago.
Drop in Physical Volumes
In addition to pricing, the decline in export volumes has taken a toll. In February, Russia exported an average of 6.6 million barrels per day—the lowest level since early 2022.
Oil and petroleum product exports dropped by 850,000 barrels per day compared to January, confirming earlier reports of technological and logistical bottlenecks in the industry.
Rublization and Debt Repayment
The Central Bank also highlighted other factors for the decrease in sales:
- The increasing share of rubles in export settlements.
- The need for companies to hoard foreign currency to repay external loans.
For Europe, this is a sign of the increasing fragility of the Russian ruble. When major exporters stop providing a steady flow of hard currency, exchange rate stability relies entirely on administrative interventions.