“New People” (Novye Lyudi), a party originally conceived by the Presidential Administration as a “spoiler” to absorb protest votes, has unexpectedly surged to second place in national polls.
According to a VCIOM survey conducted in late March 2026, the party’s electoral rating reached 10.8%, overtaking long-standing systemic opposition fixtures like the LDPR (10.5%) and the Communist Party (CPRF, 9.8%).
Analysis of the Surge:
- Exhaustion of Old Ideologies: The party, which targets the middle class and small business owners, is capitalizing on a widespread desire for “normalcy” over the politics of bans and mobilization.
- Economic Frustration: Its growth mirrors the dissatisfaction of self-employed and small-scale entrepreneurs struggling with tax hikes, excise increases, and high interest rates.
- The “Spoiler” Paradox: While intended to be a controlled valve for discontent, “New People” has become a legitimate harbor for those who reject the aggressive rhetoric of the older parties.
Analytical Summary:
The rise of “New People” to second place is the clearest symptom of “silent protest” in Russia today.
The Collapse of the Old Guard: Post-Zhirinovsky, the LDPR has lost its momentum, and the CPRF’s flirtation with repressive rhetoric has alienated modern voters. “New People” now represent the only legal refuge for citizens seeking a politics of common sense rather than phobias and restrictions.
A Dilemma for the Kremlin: While the administration has successfully channeled protest into a loyalist structure, the fact that a “spoiler” is outperforming the primary pillars of the system (CPRF/LDPR) creates a risk. Should a political transition occur, this party could transform from a controlled instrument into a significant political actor with its own agency.
P.S. This trend aligns perfectly with our internal analytical forecasts and data: the segment of Russians who currently do not approve of the war and the policy of isolation stands at approximately 10%. The electoral surge of “New People” effectively digitizes the “silent protest” of this group. You can view our detailed infographic on these social dynamics on our page (data as of last month).