Official statistics showing a slowdown in price growth in Russia directly contradict public sentiment. While the Ministry of Economic Development claims inflation slowed to 5.84% by mid-March 2026, a Public Opinion Foundation survey commissioned by the Central Bank recorded a jump in perceived inflation to 15.6% (up from 14.5% in February).
This sharp increase in negative expectations was last seen in August following a radical hike in utility tariffs. VCIOM data confirms a steady trend of distrust: the inflation perception index has been rising since October. By March, 55% of respondents characterized price growth as “very high,” compared to 46% in September 2025, before the VAT increase was announced.
Analytical summary: The gap between “paper” inflation of 5.8% and perceived inflation of 15.6% in March 2026 indicates that the state has effectively lost control over inflationary expectations. The VAT hike and military economy costs are being passed directly to the consumer, making official reports useless for assessing real welfare. For the EU, this serves as an indicator that the Russian economy’s “resilience” is depleting faster than macroeconomic models suggest, with internal social pressure becoming a long-term instability factor.