Director of Cherepovets Casting and Mechanical Plant Claims Economic Cooling Has “Buried” Russia’s Import Substitution Program
The slowdown of the Russian economy has led to the effective collapse of the country’s import substitution strategy, according to Vladimir Boglaev, Director of the Cherepovets Casting and Mechanical Plant (ChLMZ). He argues that current government policies have triggered a sharp drop in demand and halted growth across nearly all industrial sectors.
“The main problem is that the ‘economic cooling’ has clearly entered a state of ‘overcooling.’ The tasks declared a few years ago—centers for development and import substitution—are not just disrupted; they are buried. Everyone who invested in import substitution is now left with nothing,” Boglaev emphasized.
According to the factory head, Russia is facing a “fundamental crisis” that will take a long time to resolve. The current situation makes any investment in production expansion meaningless: instead of purchasing new equipment and hiring staff, enterprises are forced to:
- Switch to reduced working hours;
- Curtail technological development programs;
- Minimize operating costs for the sake of survival.
Boglaev added that technological sovereignty is impossible without increasing the number of manufacturing operations within Russia. However, the falling GDP indicates that Russia is not strengthening its independence but rather worsening the position of the real sector.
Analytical Summary:
Vladimir Boglaev’s statement serves as a manifesto for “industrial directors,” reflecting the deep disillusionment of the manufacturing sector with economic policies between 2024 and 2026. The term “overcooling,” used by the head of ChLMZ, directly points to tight monetary policies and budgetary austerity which, according to manufacturers, have stripped businesses of working capital and growth incentives. Those who believed in state slogans regarding import substitution and invested credit into machinery and technology now find themselves trapped by high debt-servicing costs amid falling demand.
The problem Boglaev describes is systemic. Import substitution requires long-term planning and cheap capital, whereas the Russian economy of 2026 operates in a fire-fighting mode to manage current deficits. When enterprises switch to part-time schedules instead of expanding, it signals the beginning of deindustrialization. Technological chains intended to replace Western and Eastern components are breaking due to low domestic demand—factories simply have no one to sell their more expensive (due to small-scale production) goods to.
The primary risk in this situation is the loss of “investor confidence” within the country. If the state cannot provide mechanisms to support demand for domestic products, the slogan of “technological sovereignty” will remain an empty declaration. The collapse of expectations among those who invested in import substitution could mean that in the next growth cycle, there will be no one left willing to develop production in Russia, leaving the economy permanently cemented as a consumer of foreign (predominantly Asian) ready-made solutions.