Slava Sobetski

EU Postpones Launch of Plan for Complete Phase-Out of Russian Oil

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The European Commission (EC) has removed the draft law on a total and permanent ban on Russian oil imports from its agenda for April 15. A new date for the review has not yet been set, according to EC spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. Despite the postponement, Brussels officially maintains its intention to legally cement the oil embargo by the end of 2027. Key Factors for the Delay: A similar plan for a complete phase-out of Russian gas by 2027 has already been approved; however, the situation in Iran now threatens the implementation of those schedules as well. Analytical Summary: The pause in adopting the oil embargo is a forced admission by Brussels that Europe’s energy security has fallen hostage to a major war in the Middle East. Failure of the Substitution Strategy: Relying on Persian Gulf countries as a “lifeline” has proven unreliable under the conditions of a direct military clash involving Iran. The EU finds itself in a stalemate: ideologically, it is bound to codify the break with Moscow, but physically, it cannot afford to lose Russian barrels at a time when supplies from Saudi Arabia and Qatar are at risk of disruption. Tactical Victory for Moscow: For the Kremlin, this delay is a temporary but crucial respite. While the “Iranian fire” inflates prices and disrupts the plans of European strategists, Russia maintains a window of opportunity for exports, even under sanctions pressure.

Russian Oil Prices in India Surpass $120 per Barrel

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The price of Russian Urals crude in Indian ports reached a record $121.65 per barrel at the end of last week. According to Bloomberg and Argus, for the first time in four years, Russian oil is trading at a premium rather than a discount compared to the Brent benchmark. Key metrics and dynamics: Analysis and Conclusion: The oil market situation in March 2026 demonstrates a paradoxical effect: the war in Iran has transformed Russian oil from a “toxic asset” into a scarce resource for which buyers are willing to overpay. The temporary easing of restrictions by Washington has effectively neutralized the “price cap” mechanism. For Russia, this means a massive influx of foreign currency, allowing it not only to plug budget holes but also to aggressively fund military and strategic projects (like the “Rassvet” satellite constellation). However, this stability is extremely fragile and depends entirely on the duration of the Middle East conflict and US political maneuvering.

Underwater Front: China launches massive preparations for war across three oceans

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China has begun implementing an unprecedented program of seabed mapping and underwater environmental monitoring, preparing for a potential confrontation with the US and its allies. According to a Reuters investigation, Beijing spends significant resources to eliminate the US Navy’s long-standing advantage in hydrographic knowledge. Scale and objectives of the operation: Analysis and Conclusion: China has shifted from coastal defense to a strategy of “power projection” in the world’s oceans. Mapping the seafloor and studying acoustic water parameters are critical preparations for using nuclear submarines. Knowledge of the “underwater landscape” allows Chinese submarines to move stealthily and set ambushes, neutralizing the technological superiority of American sonars. For the global community, this means the transformation of peaceful scientific research into a tool for military expansion, which will inevitably lead to the militarization of oceanography and new clashes in neutral waters.

Hungarian Foreign Minister admits calling Lavrov during sensitive EU negotiations

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Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has publicly admitted to maintaining direct communication with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov immediately before and after EU Foreign Affairs Council meetings. This statement, made on March 23, 2026, effectively confirms earlier investigative reports by The Washington Post and Politico. Key facts and consequences: Analysis and Conclusion: The Szijjártó situation is no longer a hypothetical threat; it is an institutional breach. Hungary has transformed into a “legal access point” for the Kremlin into the EU’s internal decision-making mechanisms. The primary danger lies in the paralysis of European diplomacy: the inability to discuss sanctions or military aid to Ukraine in Hungary’s presence is forcing EU members to move toward separate, informal meeting formats. This erodes the unity of the union and creates a hazardous precedent where NATO and EU membership are leveraged for legal espionage in favor of a geopolitical adversary.

Russia Begins Selling Gold Reserves to Plug Budget Holes — First Time Since 2002

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Russian authorities have turned to radical measures to save the federal budget. For the first time in nearly a quarter-century, the Central Bank has begun the physical sale of gold from its reserves. The reason is a catastrophic deficit that exceeded 15 trillion rubles between 2022 and 2025, and grew by another 3.5 trillion in the first two months of 2026 alone. Gold Sale Facts: From “Virtual” Deals to Real Ones:Until recently, gold operations within the National Wealth Fund (NWF) were merely an accounting formality: the Ministry of Finance “sold” gold to the Central Bank, simply moving the metal from one state pocket to another. Now, however, the Central Bank has entered the market with physical bullion (likely domestic or in “friendly” countries), converting strategic reserves into liquid cash. Analytical Summary: The transition of the Central Bank to the physical sale of gold is a clear signal of the critical exhaustion of “currency resources.” The Yuan Deadlock: It appears that the liquid portion of reserves in Chinese yuan has reached a dangerous threshold. The regulator is afraid to “burn through” the remaining Chinese currency, as it is the only tool left to influence the ruble’s exchange rate. Gold has become the last liquid asset that can be directed toward military spending, which has reached levels not seen since the Soviet era. End of the Accumulation Era: The decade spent turning Russia into a “gold fortress” has officially ended. By starting the sale of physical bullion, the Kremlin admits that current oil and gas revenues no longer cover the appetite of the war machine. Risk of “Eating the Future”: If the deficit pace continues (3.5 trillion in two months), the gold reserve could melt away before our eyes. This undermines the long-term stability of the ruble and strips the country of its last strategic reserve, which remained untouched even during the most challenging periods of the last 20 years.

Serbia Begins Issuing Citizenship to Russians Who Renounced Their RF Passports

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Serbia has finally begun the naturalization process for former Russian citizens who officially renounced their Russian passports to obtain Serbian ones but spent years in a legal vacuum. According to the “Volna” Telegram channel, the first applicants have started receiving their final documents, confirming their new status after a long period of uncertainty. Key details of the multi-year legal deadlock: Analytical summary: The resumption of issuing passports to “former Russians” in Serbia serves as an important precedent reflecting Belgrade’s attempt to normalize the legal status of political and economic migrants who have made a final choice in favor of integration. The multi-year freeze on this process was a clear sign of Serbia’s political caution as it tried to balance EU transparency requirements for naturalization with a desire not to irritate Moscow by facilitating a mass exodus of citizens into its own jurisdiction. The fact that people lived as stateless persons for years underscores the high risks associated with the procedure of renouncing Russian citizenship in countries with a complex geopolitical agenda and highlights the vulnerability of migrants caught between conflicting diplomatic interests. These current shifts likely mean that Serbian authorities have finally established a verification mechanism allowing for the completion of integration for those who have definitively severed their legal ties with Russia.

Sentiment Among Major Russian Industrial Enterprises Plummets to 1990s Levels

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Deep pessimism is mounting in Russia’s real sector. The Composite Index of Industrial Optimism, calculated by the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEF RAS), dropped to -20 points in March. This decline returns business sentiment to the levels seen during the economic chaos of the 1990s following the collapse of the USSR. Key indicators of industrial depression: According to Sergey Tsukhlo, the author of the index, the current decline in sentiment has taken on a steady and systemic character, reflecting the inability of enterprises to adapt to new economic realities. Analytical summary: The collapse of the industrial optimism index to 1990s levels is a diagnosis for a Russian economy that has finally lost its growth drivers. A situation where demand falls to values last seen twenty-five years ago indicates that even state defense stimulus is no longer capable of propping up civilian and related sectors. Enterprises are facing a “scissors effect”: shrinking sales markets on one side and an inability to plan due to high uncertainty on the other. The fact that this pessimism has lasted for 16 months points to a transition from an acute crisis to a chronic one, which will inevitably lead to the curtailment of investment programs and further technological degradation of production.

Putin Acknowledges Start of Russian Economic Downturn

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The dynamics of Russia’s key macroeconomic indicators turned negative at the beginning of 2026. During a meeting on economic issues on Monday, President Vladimir Putin officially confirmed a drop in GDP, effectively acknowledging the start of a recession. Key crisis indicators: Putin described the situation as “expected” and instructed the government to return the country to growth while avoiding labor market destabilization and surging inflation. Analytical summary: Putin’s admission of an economic downturn is an official signal that the resource of “military Keynesianism,” which sustained GDP through defense orders, has been exhausted. The structural degradation of industry has hit even base sectors—from metallurgy to food processing—indicating a deep systemic crisis. The situation is exacerbated by a “perfect storm”: collapsing export revenues and the inability to curb inflation without further cooling the economy. The revision of forecasts toward stagnation (0.7%) and the impending budget sequestration suggest that the authorities have no tools left to stimulate growth other than direct money printing, which will inevitably lead to social tension.

“If You Don’t Learn Them, You Won’t Pass”: Russia Requires Students to Know Names and “Feats” of Ukraine War Figures for State Exams

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Russian authorities have finalized the ideological component of the higher education system. Vladislav Kononov, a Kremlin administration official, explicitly stated in an interview with Kommersant that knowing the names and “heroic deeds” of those fighting in the war against Ukraine is a mandatory requirement for passing the Unified State Exam (EGE) in history. According to him, “alternative theories” are not permitted, and preparation must strictly follow the new state-approved textbooks. Key facts of the new requirement: Analytical summary: The transformation of the history exam into a tool of political loyalty completes the nationalization of historical memory. Requiring the memorization of biographies from the ongoing conflict turns an academic assessment into a test of ideological reliability. Forcing future lawyers, sociologists, and journalists to master a “canonical” list of figures means the country’s humanitarian elite is now being built on a foundation of militaristic propaganda. This creates a system where access to social mobility depends entirely on a student’s willingness to broadcast imposed political dogmas, effectively purging critical thinking from the educational process.

Russia Halts Oil Exports via Baltic Sea Ports Following Massive UAV Attack

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Russian oil exports through key Baltic Sea terminals have been completely paralyzed following an unprecedented drone attack on the Leningrad region. According to Reuters, citing industry sources, operations at the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga have been suspended. Up to half of Russia’s total seaborne crude oil exports pass through these hubs. Details of the incident: The situation is complicated by the fact that Russian oil companies currently lack alternative routes of such capacity. Analytical summary: The total halt of Baltic exports is a “black swan” for the Russian budget and a critical blow to energy logistics. The Baltic was the last relatively safe window for foreign currency earnings, and its closure due to a massive UAV attack shifts the economic confrontation into a phase of physical destruction of export potential. The loss of 1.7 million barrels per day will not only trigger a spike in global oil prices but also place immense pressure on the domestic storage system: if exports do not resume within days, companies will be forced to shut in wells. This is a clear demonstration that air defenses are unable to ensure the invulnerability of the facilities providing the country’s primary income.