Russian oil exports through key Baltic Sea terminals have been completely paralyzed following an unprecedented drone attack on the Leningrad region. According to Reuters, citing industry sources, operations at the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga have been suspended. Up to half of Russia’s total seaborne crude oil exports pass through these hubs.
Details of the incident:
- Scale of Attack: The raid on the night of March 23 was the largest since the start of the war, involving at least 60 drones.
- Primorsk: Governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed strikes on port infrastructure. Several fuel tanks caught fire at the terminal, which normally ships about 1 million barrels per day.
- Ust-Luga: Shipments have also been halted. Oil companies previously exported around 700,000 barrels per day through this port. The exact extent of damage to the Ust-Luga terminal is currently being assessed.
- Total Losses: The sudden shutdown has removed approximately 1.7 million barrels of oil per day from the market.
The situation is complicated by the fact that Russian oil companies currently lack alternative routes of such capacity.
Analytical summary: The total halt of Baltic exports is a “black swan” for the Russian budget and a critical blow to energy logistics. The Baltic was the last relatively safe window for foreign currency earnings, and its closure due to a massive UAV attack shifts the economic confrontation into a phase of physical destruction of export potential. The loss of 1.7 million barrels per day will not only trigger a spike in global oil prices but also place immense pressure on the domestic storage system: if exports do not resume within days, companies will be forced to shut in wells. This is a clear demonstration that air defenses are unable to ensure the invulnerability of the facilities providing the country’s primary income.