The price of Russian Urals crude in Indian ports reached a record $121.65 per barrel at the end of last week. According to Bloomberg and Argus, for the first time in four years, Russian oil is trading at a premium rather than a discount compared to the Brent benchmark.
Key metrics and dynamics:
- Market Premium: Urals is currently $3.90 more expensive per barrel than Brent. For context, earlier in 2026, the discount due to US sanctions was as high as $12.
- Price Gap: In Russian ports (excluding freight), the price stands at $89.58. This is $30 higher than the level set in the RF 2026 budget.
- Windfall Profits: Weekly export revenues for Russian oil companies jumped to $2.458 billion, a 120% increase compared to the period before the conflict in Iran began.
- The US Factor: This surge was made possible by the temporary waiver of US sanctions on Russian seaborne oil, introduced to stabilize global energy prices.
Analysis and Conclusion: The oil market situation in March 2026 demonstrates a paradoxical effect: the war in Iran has transformed Russian oil from a “toxic asset” into a scarce resource for which buyers are willing to overpay. The temporary easing of restrictions by Washington has effectively neutralized the “price cap” mechanism. For Russia, this means a massive influx of foreign currency, allowing it not only to plug budget holes but also to aggressively fund military and strategic projects (like the “Rassvet” satellite constellation). However, this stability is extremely fragile and depends entirely on the duration of the Middle East conflict and US political maneuvering.