The Government of Russia is shifting to strict regulation of fuel production, which has plummeted to a 17-year low following a series of drone attacks. In April, at least 9 refineries were hit, forcing the authorities to urgently tighten control over the industry.
Mechanisms of Forced Stabilization:
- Mandatory Agreements: 11 major oil companies, including Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, and Surgutneftegaz, will sign documents with the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) regarding measures to supply the domestic market.
- The “Quota” System: The government, through the Ministry of Energy, will issue direct orders to companies on production volumes, domestic shipments, exports, and exchange sales of Class 5 gasoline and diesel.
- Official Motivation: The Cabinet justifies these measures by the need to support agriculture during the field work period and the seasonal increase in demand.
Analysis of Resilience and Risks: The transition to “manual control” of the oil sector is a sign of a deep systemic crisis. Since the beginning of 2026, Russian refineries have been attacked by drones at least 19 times, leading to the partial or total shutdown of processing at five major plants in April alone. The drop in capacity utilization to 4.69 million barrels per day (the lowest since 2009) exposes the critical vulnerability of the aggressor country’s energy rear. For the EU and the international community, this is a clear signal: the costs of war and the inability to protect infrastructure are destroying market mechanisms in the RF, turning the economy into a strictly distributive model. The regime’s resource base is dwindling, and administrative pressure on business only masks the state’s inability to guarantee energy security.
The Bottom Line: The Kremlin is effectively admitting the market’s inability to adapt to the consequences of the war. Forcing oil companies to operate according to state plans confirms the degradation of the industry and the intensification of infrastructural paralysis.