Oil refining volumes at Russian refineries have plunged to their lowest levels since 2009 following massive drone attacks affecting plants, oil depots, and pipelines from the Leningrad region to the Urals. According to OilX data cited by Bloomberg, refining output has dropped to 4.69 million barrels per day. Compared to last year, volumes fell by 12%, and relative to pre-war 2021, the decline reached 18%, equivalent to a loss of nearly 1 million barrels per day.
Scale of Infrastructure Damage:
- In April, the AFU attacked Russian oil infrastructure at least 21 times, a record high since the beginning of the year.
- At least 9 refineries were targeted, with 5 forced to shut down production fully or partially.
- At least 5 attacks on the Russian oil pipeline system were recorded, along with 6 strikes on maritime infrastructure, including Baltic Sea ports.
Analysis of Resilience and Risks: The systematic destruction of primary processing facilities is transforming an energy superpower into a country with a deficient domestic fuel market. The drop in indicators to 2009 levels indicates that the RF is rapidly losing the technological complexity of its economy, reverting to a model of primitive raw material export. For Europe and the democratic world, this confirms the effectiveness of the strategy to undermine the aggressor’s financial base: without functioning refineries, the Kremlin loses not only foreign exchange earnings but also the ability to ensure an uninterrupted supply of fuel and lubricants to the occupation forces. The critical vulnerability of the pipeline system and ports highlights the inability of Russian air defenses to protect strategic assets, making Putin’s economic model increasingly fragile and dependent on external supplies.
The Bottom Line: The technological and infrastructural regression of oil refining by 17 years exposes the limit of the system’s resilience. The inability to protect the energy rear leads to the degradation of export potential and undermines the logistical foundation for waging an aggressive war.