The surge in oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East has provided a significant financial boost to the Kremlin. According to Financial Times calculations, the Russian budget is currently receiving between 110 and 160 million dollars in additional daily revenue. In the first 12 days of the war alone, Moscow’s nominal earnings reached up to 1.9 billion dollars. If average prices remain in the 70–80 dollar per barrel range, additional March revenues could approach 5 billion dollars.
India and China Compete for Russian Barrels
India has taken advantage of temporary US waivers, sharply increasing its purchases: in just five days, contracts for 30 million barrels were signed—an amount equal to the entire import volume for February. Analysts at Kpler note that amid the shortage, Indian companies have shifted from demanding discounts to paying premiums, offering 5 dollars over the Brent price. With Middle Eastern routes paralyzed, India and China are effectively competing for Russian crude, pushing shipment volumes to Indian ports toward 2 million barrels per day.
Collapse of Sanctions on Maritime Services
The price of Urals crude has reached 85 dollars per barrel, a peak not seen since 2022. Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution observes that at these price levels, the EU ban on providing maritime services in European ports—a key part of the 20th sanctions package—is effectively “dead.” Russia has temporarily emerged as the primary beneficiary of the conflict, using high prices not only to fill its coffers but also to increase pressure on Washington to further ease the sanctions regime.