Donald Trump’s policies have triggered a fundamental crisis of trust within NATO, leading a significant portion of the population in major EU countries to perceive the United States as a destabilizing factor. According to a mid-March Politico poll conducted in six key European nations (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Belgium), the United States is now viewed as a greater threat than Communist China.
Key Findings of the Study:
- Threat Hierarchy: Russia remains the primary adversary for Europeans (70%). However, 36% of respondents identified the U.S. as a threat, notably higher than those who chose China (29%).
- Crisis of Alliance: Only 12% of respondents still consider the U.S. a close ally. The most radical sentiments were recorded in Spain, where over half the population (51%) views Washington as a direct threat.
- Demand for Sovereignty: A record 94% of participants support increasing Europe’s autonomy and reducing dependence on other major powers, even if such a transition entails significant economic costs.
Analytical Summary:
The poll results reflect more than just temporary dissatisfaction with Trump as a political figure; they signal a deep erosion of transatlantic solidarity that is already moving from sociology into the realm of real geopolitics.
The End of the “Security Umbrella” Era: Faith in the permanence of American security guarantees has been undermined. For European voters, Trump personifies an unpredictability that frightens them more than the systemic rivalry with Beijing. This psychological shift is pushing EU elites toward the accelerated creation of their own independent defense structures. In effect, Trump has become an involuntary catalyst for Europe’s transformation into an autonomous pole of power—a goal long sought by Paris but previously resisted by Berlin and Madrid.
From Words to Actions: The Spanish precedent—denying the use of airbases and airspace for operations against Iran—is the first practical confirmation of this new course. While European nations previously limited themselves to diplomatic criticism of Washington, they are now prepared for direct sabotage of American military initiatives. The militarization of the European consciousness is now directed not only toward protection against external aggression but also against the political dictates of an ally, creating a unique historical case of “double containment” on the continent.
The Economic Price of Independence: The willingness of 94% of the population to endure economic sacrifices for the sake of autonomy indicates that European society is prepared for a long and costly transformation. This suggests that the coming years will see not only a rise in defense budgets but also a surge in trade protectionism within the EU, aimed at shielding domestic production from both American and Chinese technological giants. Europe is preparing for “solo navigation,” in which the U.S. is no longer the absolute point of reference.