The Russian army is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine amid stalled peace negotiations, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with Kremlin discussions. According to one source, the conflict—which has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War—could continue for another one to two years unless a breakthrough is achieved at the negotiating table.
Key Aspects of the Kremlin’s Strategy:
- War of Attrition: Vladimir Putin continues to demand the full surrender of Donbas, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy refuses territorial concessions, insisting such a scenario would only lead to renewed Russian aggression in the future.
- Limited Expectations: Even within Moscow, sources admit that the planned offensive is unlikely to result in significant breakthroughs. Currently, Ukrainian forces are gradually pushing Russian troops out of Kupyansk.
- Mobilization Push: To sustain prolonged combat, the Kremlin is preparing the public for a new “partial mobilization.” Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) point to increased internet censorship and recent laws allowing the Ministry of Defense to tap into a 2-million-strong mobilization reserve.
Analytical Summary:
The decision to prolong the war for another two years confirms that the Russian regime has shifted into a mode of “existence for the sake of the process,” rather than a specific result.
Information Blockade as a Precursor: The tightening of internet controls is a classic preparation for unpopular measures. Closing the information space is essential for the Kremlin to minimize protests during a potential new wave of conscription.
The Offensive Trap: Preparing for a “new offensive” that even Kremlin insiders doubt will succeed appears to be a move for the regime’s political survival. Without real victories, Putin must maintain the illusion of progress to justify the transition to “war-time laws” previously mentioned by Senator Klishas. For society, this means two more years of living under the shadow of deficits, inflation, and the fear of mobilization.