Russian small business owners are facing an unprecedented wave of pessimism. According to a joint study by FOM and HSE University, 31% of entrepreneurs are considering closing or selling their businesses in the first quarter of 2026. This is an 8-percentage-point increase compared to last year and marks an all-time high since monitoring began in 2021. The primary drivers are sharp tax increases and a general economic downturn.
Record Pessimism and Survival Mode
Business expectations for the current quarter are grimmer than during the 2022 crisis. Over half of respondents (52%) are convinced their situation will worsen, while the share of optimists has plummeted to a historic low of 12%. The study highlights a disturbing trend: by early 2026, nearly 40% of small enterprises have entered “survival mode.” This indicates that growth resources are entirely exhausted, with operations focused solely on covering current costs and tax liabilities.
The Tax Deadlock for the Private Sector
The rising fiscal burden comes at a time when the reliability of state statistics is increasingly questioned and government focus is shifted toward defense spending. For small businesses without access to state contracts, tax hikes act as a prohibitive barrier. The potential exit of one-third of entrepreneurs from the market could lead to the erosion of the service and retail sectors, deepening the economy’s reliance on the public sector and large monopolies.