The Russian cement industry is facing a record-breaking downturn. In January–February 2026, cement production plummeted by 31.2% compared to last year, totaling only 4.2 million tons. According to Kommersant, citing data from Soyuzcement, the industry is sinking into a depression comparable to the 2010 crisis.
Key Indicators of the Construction Slump:
- Collapse in Consumption: Demand for cement fell by 25.7% in two months (to 4.5 million tons). Forecasts suggest annual consumption could drop to 46 million tons—a 15-year low.
- Developer Crisis: Housing commissions in January 2026 decreased by 27%, and the launch of new projects in 2025 fell by 12%. The primary blow was the cancellation of mass subsidized mortgages, which caused sales to crash by 26%.
- Plant Shutdowns: The drop in demand is equivalent to closing seven major plants with a capacity of 2 million tons per year each. Major players, such as Cemros, are already suspending operations at facilities in the Belgorod and Ulyanovsk regions.
The situation is exacerbated by rising imports: the share of foreign products (primarily from Iran, Belarus, and Turkey) has risen to 6.7%, further pushing domestic producers out of a shrinking market.
Analytical Summary:
The collapse in cement production is a leading indicator of a deep systemic crisis across the entire construction sector, which for years served as the locomotive of the Russian economy.
The End of the Mortgage Bubble: We are witnessing a hard landing for the sector following the cessation of state-funded subsidized loans. Without cheap money, the construction machine has stalled, and the inertia of building material production has hit a “concrete wall” of absent demand.
Scale of Degradation: A consumption forecast of 46 million tons represents a rollback of a decade and a half. The fact that reality is proving to be 10-15% worse than even the most pessimistic business expectations suggests that the bottom of the crisis has not yet been reached.
Industrial Paralysis: Plant shutdowns and increasing dependence on Iranian imports place the industry in a survival struggle. Given the capital-intensive nature of cement production, mothballing kilns today means the impossibility of a rapid recovery tomorrow, condemning the Russian construction complex to prolonged stagnation.