Tax hikes, a sharp shift toward consumer austerity, and the first economic contraction since 2023 have triggered a massive wave of liquidations among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Russia. As reported by Forbes, citing data from the analytical platform Kontur.Focus, 209,000 SME companies were liquidated during the first quarter of 2026—a 9% increase compared to the same period last year.
SME Sector: Fiscal Pressure and Operational Crisis
| Industry | Current State and Forecasts |
| Food Service (Cafes, Bars, Restaurants) | 94% of establishments operate on the verge of profitability or at a loss (Action Accounting survey). |
| Retail Trade (Apparel) | Up to 40% of clothing stores are projected to close by the end of the year (Goldman Agency estimate). |
| Service Industry (Beauty Salons) | Experiencing mass closures due to a drop in disposable income and rising costs of supplies. |
System Resource: Resilience and Risk Analysis
The ongoing crisis in the SME sector highlights that private enterprises have exhausted their safety margins under the weight of state fiscal policies:
- The Tax Vise: Since the beginning of 2026, entrepreneurs with an annual revenue between 20 million and 60 million rubles were stripped of previous tax privileges and forced to pay VAT, which has increased to 22%. The cancellation of flat-rate patent deductions forced businesses onto the simplified tax system (6% of turnover or 15% of profit), which proved unsustainable amid shrinking margins.
- Consumer Pessimism: The population has adopted a rigid model of austerity, cutting back on food services, the beauty industry, and non-food retail. This contraction in demand prevents SMEs from passing increased tax costs onto the final consumer.
- Expensive Capital: The Bank of Russia’s extremely high interest rates have effectively cut off small businesses from working capital loans, leaving them unable to bridge temporary cash flow gaps.
The Bottom Line: As economist Dmitry Polevoy notes, the private sector has run completely out of internal reserves. The aggressive draining of liquidity to fund a deficit-ridden federal budget is dismantling the foundations of small business, replacing self-reliance and commercial initiative with a wave of bankruptcies and a shift into the shadow economy.