In 2025, the volume of fixed capital investment contracted by 2.3%, marking the deepest decline since 2015. Data from Rosstat and the HSE Development Center record a negative dynamic that intensified throughout the reporting period: from a 6.5% growth in the first quarter to a 5.3% drop in the fourth. The current downturn surpassed even the figures from the pandemic year of 2020, when the decline was only 0.1%, indicating the exhaustion of internal growth resources.
Sectoral polarization and project freezes
According to an RSPP survey, approximately 15% of companies completely froze their investment programs, while over 60% significantly or slightly reduced them. The main blow fell on sectors with high sensitivity to the key interest rate — construction and transport, as well as extractive sectors (coal and oil & gas industries). Positive dynamics were maintained only in segments focused on the military-industrial complex and pharmaceuticals, confirming the economy’s skew toward the state defense order.
Analytical conclusions and consequences
This situation is classified as (Increased pressure) on the country’s economic potential. The near-zero dynamic in nominal terms expected by the Ministry of Economic Development in 2026 effectively means a continued real investment downturn due to high inflation. Stagnation of fixed capital investments in civilian sectors will lead to technological degradation and reduced competitiveness, undermining the system’s long-term sustainability and limiting opportunities for real import substitution.