The resonant tax reform that came into force at the beginning of the year has turned into a shock scenario for Russian entrepreneurship. The increase in the fiscal burden, officially intended to fill the budget to cover growing government spending, has in practice led to mass unprofitability of enterprises and a sharp drop in actual tax collections.
Key Indicators:
- Scale of Unprofitability: According to the results of a survey by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), which is cited by RBC, exactly 50% of the country’s small enterprises are now forced to work without any profit.
- TPP Data: Statistics from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry look even more alarming — 65% of companies did not receive profits by the end of the first quarter, many of which officially recorded losses.
- Fiscal Failure: Despite Ministry of Finance expectations of an additional 200 billion rubles, actual revenues from businesses on special regimes according to FTS data decreased by 16% year-on-year — to 537.2 billion rubles.
- Reform Parameters: Since January 1, 2026, companies on the STS (Simplified Tax System) and patent system with an income above 20 million rubles became VAT payers, the general rate of which was increased to 22% with the simultaneous abolition of benefits for insurance contributions.
Mobilization Budget Against the Private Sector
The April 2026 statistics expose a fundamental miscalculation in state planning: an attempt to seize working capital from small businesses under the conditions of sanctions pressure and logistical difficulties has led to the paralysis of the most flexible sector of the economy. The government has essentially bet on a short-term budget filling, ignoring the long-term risks of degradation of the entrepreneurial environment.
Analysis of Discrepancies:
- The VAT Trap and Digital Barrier: The sharp lowering of the VAT threshold to 20 million rubles has effectively liquidated the advantage of the simplified tax system (STS). Small business faced not only a direct increase in payments but also a colossal complication of administration. Official statements that entrepreneurs “incorrectly chose the regime” only mask the reality: in the current model, business simply has no legal tools left to maintain profitability.
- The Reverse Effect: The decrease in collections by 16% against the background of rising tax rates is a classic indicator that the fiscal oppression has exceeded the system’s limit of endurance. Instead of the promised stabilization of the treasury, there is a massive move of business into “gray” zones or total liquidation of enterprises. This devalues the multi-year successes of the FTS in digitalizing control, as economic subjects physically cease to generate a taxable base.
- Social Risk: Small and medium-sized businesses are traditionally the main employers in the regions. The unprofitability of more than half of enterprises will inevitably trigger a wave of hidden layoffs and a drop in the real incomes of the population. This creates a dangerous gap between official reports of record-low unemployment and the actual decline in the standard of living of citizens forced to adapt to survival in a mobilization economy.
The Bottom Line: The tax policy of 2026 clearly demonstrates the priority of financing state needs over supporting private initiative. By sacrificing small business, the state undermines the foundation of the consumer market and deprives the economy of adaptation mechanisms, which will inevitably lead to a further contraction of the tax base in the near perspective.