The resonant tax reform and a sharp decline in industrial output have created a pincer effect on the Russian economy in early 2026. While the state attempts to fill the budget for war expenditures, both the private sector and industrial giants are facing a shock scenario.
The Collapse of Small Business:
- Unprofitability Scale: According to a Center for Strategic Research (CSR) survey, 50% of small enterprises are now operating without profit.
- Fiscal Failure: Despite tax hikes, revenues from special regimes fell by 16% year-on-year to 537.2 billion rubles.
- VAT Trap: Lowering the VAT threshold to 20 million rubles has effectively liquidated the benefits of the simplified tax system.
The Crisis at Nornickel:
- Production Crash: In the first quarter, nickel output collapsed by 28%, platinum by 26%, and palladium by 14%.
- Logistics Blockade: The 20th EU sanctions package banned operations with the Port of Murmansk, the company’s primary export hub.
- Technological Hunger: Analytical reports from Gazprombank describe the results as “negative,” noting that nickel production has been declining for three consecutive years due to a lack of Western equipment.
The Bottom Line: The Russian economic model is eroding under the weight of mobilization demands. The contrast is striking: while Vladimir Potanin’s fortune remains at $29.7 billion, the industrial base he owns is degrading due to isolation.