Slava Sobetski

Ruble falls to multi-month lows as state currency support vanishes

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дефицита The Russian ruble has begun its fifth consecutive week of decline despite a sharp rise in Russian oil prices, which are trading above $70 per barrel at Russian ports and nearly $100 in India. On the Moscow Exchange this Monday, the yuan hit a peak since September of last year (11.84 rubles). The over-the-counter dollar rate reached 81.51 rubles, while the euro exceeded 93 rubles for the first time since January 2026. Analysts attribute this weakness to a reduction in state support for the exchange rate. On March 4, 2026, the Ministry of Finance suspended currency sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) under the “budget rule” to preserve the fund’s remaining assets, from which two-thirds of liquid assets have already been withdrawn to plug budget gaps since the war began. Budget deficit vs. exchange rate stability Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance notes that the market has lost a regular supply of foreign currency from the state, estimated at 200 billion rubles. This loss of liquidity automatically increases volatility and puts downward pressure on the ruble. Andrey Khokhrin, CEO of Ivolga Capital, highlights a fundamental contradiction: a strong ruble is incompatible with Russia’s chronic budget deficit. To cover financial shortfalls, a weaker currency is more beneficial for the state, as it translates export revenues into a larger amount of rubles. Analytical summary: In March 2026, the Russian currency market entered a phase of “manual control” due to the depletion of NWF reserves. The ruble’s weakening despite high oil prices confirms that the regime’s fiscal interests (budget filling) now dominate over macroeconomic stability, which will inevitably spur inflation and further reduce real household income.

European Commission rules out relaxing bans on Russian energy imports

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The European Union will maintain its firm stance on a total rejection of oil and gas from Russia, despite the current energy crisis. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, speaking at a ministerial summit in Brussels, stated that there would be no return to the previous import model. “In the future, we will not import a single molecule from Russia,” he emphasized, calling the decision a fundamental matter of security. According to Jørgensen, long-term dependence on Russian supplies allowed Vladimir Putin to use energy as a weapon and a blackmail tool. The European Commission views further purchases as indirect financing of military actions, making any exemptions from the sanctions regime impossible. Analytical summary: The statement by Jørgensen in March 2026 finalizes the failure of the Kremlin’s hopes for a “freezing Europe” and the lifting of the embargo to lower prices. For the Russian economy, this signifies the irreversible loss of a premium market and the long-term degradation of extraction infrastructure, deprived of its primary source of hard currency revenue and investment.

Pro-Russian networks promote “Narva People’s Republic” separatist project in Estonia

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In March 2026, a coordinated campaign appeared in the Estonian segment of social media (TikTok, VKontakte, Telegram) promoting the idea of seceding the city of Narva and the Ida-Viru region from Estonia. According to the monitoring project Propastop, the goal of these info-dumps is to create a so-called “Narva People’s Republic.” Posts are accompanied by hashtags such as #WaitingForRussia and calls to protect “Russian identity.” Propaganda materials actively use separatist symbols (a green-black-white flag) and militaristic imagery. The technology of creating “people’s republics” completely mirrors the scenarios used by Russia in 2014 in Donetsk and Luhansk, indicating a direct continuity of hybrid aggression methods. Information operation as a tool for destabilization A representative of the Estonian Internal Security Service (Kapo), Marta Tuule, characterized the events as a classic information operation. According to the agency, the campaign’s task is to sow chaos, undermine social cohesion, and intimidate the population. Experts note that this is a “simple and cheap way” to keep the internal politics of an EU and NATO member state under tension. Despite the marginal nature of the content, the mass scale of the leaks suggests attempts to probe “pain points” in regions with high concentrations of Russian-speaking populations. Amid ongoing confrontation with the West, the Kremlin is returning to proven tools of territorial blackmail. Analytical summary: The activation of the “Narva Republic” project in 2026 signals a return to the strategy of creating social tension zones on the borders of the EU and NATO. The campaign does not aim for immediate territorial seizure but works toward internal division within Estonia, forcing European security institutions to divert resources toward localizing hybrid threats rather than long-term external support planning.

Yandex cuts costs amid consumer market degradation and sanction pressure

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Russian tech leader Yandex is beginning staff optimization and a project portfolio review in 2026. According to Kommersant, hundreds of specialists in the key “Search and AI” division face potential dismissal. Despite a formal group revenue increase of 28% (to 436 billion rubles), growth in the strategically vital search segment slowed to 4%, signaling stagnation in the domestic advertising market. Q4 reporting revealed systemic losses in 6 out of 12 key divisions. The largest EBITDA deficits were recorded in “e-commerce” (-8.163 billion rubles) and “autonomous technologies” (-4.888 billion rubles). The latter is directly linked to sanction restrictions on the import of high-tech components and chips, making the development of self-driving vehicles economically unsustainable. Toxic atmosphere for IT investment IT market experts, including Darya Tsiruleva of KORUS Consulting, note a 10-15% reduction in IT budgets. Under isolation and instability, “there is less money in the economy,” and investors demand immediate returns, blocking long-term innovation. While Yandex officially claims its workforce grew to 31,500 in 2025, industry analysts view current cuts as an attempt to shed unprofitable assets resulting from the inability to scale business into Western markets. Analytical summary: For the European Union, the Yandex crisis is a signal of sanction effectiveness in the tech sector. Stagnation in search and losses in innovative divisions confirm that the Russian tech giant is losing its role as an “engine of modernization,” devolving into a local service maintaining basic digital infrastructure within a collapsing consumer market.

Russians withdraw over 1.1 trillion rubles in cash in one month amid connectivity failures

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Massive bank card blocks and regular mobile internet outages have triggered a record shift toward cash transactions. In January 2026, Russian bank clients withdrew more than 1.6 trillion rubles from their accounts, the highest figure since March 2022. Meanwhile, less than a third of this amount—only 468 billion rubles—returned to time deposits, according to Bank of Russia data analyzed by RBC. The total net outflow of liquidity from the banking system amounted to approximately 1.1 trillion rubles. Experts, including Alexander Abramov from RANEPA, note that such distrust in digital payments and the return to paper banknotes have not been observed in Russia since the mid-2000s. Risks to the stability of the financial system Ongoing problems with the internet and connectivity could further drive public demand for cash. According to the forecast by Evgeny Goryunov of the Gaidar Institute, the current dynamics pose a direct threat to the stability of the banking sector. If the withdrawal of funds becomes a long-term trend, banks will face an acute liquidity shortage. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the digitalization of the economy, a key focus for decades, has proven vulnerable to technical failures and infrastructural limitations. Citizens prefer to keep savings “under the mattress,” fearing a total loss of access to their assets amid unstable payment service operations. Analytical summary: The mass exodus into cash totaling 1.1 trillion rubles signals a systemic crisis of confidence in the state’s digital infrastructure. In 2026, this will lead to the growth of the shadow economy and limit banks’ lending capacities, forcing the regulator to introduce new restrictive measures to retain capital within the system.

Belgian Prime Minister calls for a deal with Putin to normalize relations with Russia

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The Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever, has issued a resonant statement on the need to normalize relations with Russia. In an interview with L’Echo, the politician emphasized that the European Union should reach an agreement with Vladimir Putin to achieve peace and regain access to low-priced oil and gas. According to the Belgian head of government, the current strategy of supporting Ukraine militarily while simultaneously attempting to undermine the Russian economy is ineffective without massive assistance from the USA. De Wever described the return to purchasing Russian energy resources as “common sense,” noting that European leaders agree with his position in private conversations but fear speaking it aloud. The Prime Minister urged an end to the conflict in Europe’s interest, while formally warning against being “naive” towards the Kremlin. Split within the EU over the negotiation issue The Belgian leader’s statement has exposed deep divisions within the EU. Currently, a bloc of countries favoring direct negotiations with Russia has formed, including Belgium, France (Emmanuel Macron), Italy (Giorgia Meloni), and Hungary (Viktor Orbán). This group is opposed by a faction of states holding an uncompromising stance: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These countries categorically reject the possibility of a deal with the Kremlin, viewing it as a capitulation and a threat to the region’s long-term security. Analytical summary: The Belgian Prime Minister’s public call for a deal with Russia marks a critical fatigue within “Old Europe” regarding economic pressure and resource deficits. In 2026, this trend could lead to political paralysis within the EU, where the desire for cheap energy will enter into direct conflict with commitments to support Ukraine, ultimately shattering the unity of the Western coalition.

Gazprom starts manufacturing refrigerators following collapse of gas exports

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The Bosch household appliance plant near St. Petersburg, now managed by Gazprom subsidiary Gazprom Household Systems, resumed refrigerator production in May 2025. The enterprise has already established the manufacture of over 30 models and delivered an initial batch of 30,000 units to major Russian retailers such as M.Video-Eldorado and DNS. Plans for 2026 include increasing production to 100,000 units, reaching 220,000 by 2027. Additionally, the company is preparing to launch production lines for washing machines. This sharp diversification of the gas giant’s activities occurs against the backdrop of an unprecedented crisis in its core business—energy extraction and export. Export model crisis and loss of the European market By the beginning of 2026, Gazprom’s list of foreign clients had dwindled to just four countries: Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, and China. Pipeline gas export volumes have remained at the minimums of the late 1980s for the third consecutive year. According to BCS estimates, exports in 2025 amounted to only 78 billion cubic meters, nearly three times lower than the peak figures of 2018 (200 billion cubic meters). Deliveries to Europe have plummeted to levels not seen since the early 1970s, totaling just 18 billion cubic meters last year. Despite record purchases by China via the Power of Siberia pipeline (38.8 billion cubic meters), the eastern direction compensates for only one-fifth of the lost European market. Analytical summary: Gazprom’s pivot to manufacturing household appliances symbolizes a forced attempt to utilize excess financial and administrative resources amidst the collapse of exports. In 2026, this strategy will fail to compensate for the multi-billion dollar losses in gas revenue but will solidify the trend of nationalizing niches vacated by departing Western brands.

Central Bank finds mass desire among Russians to return to Soviet-style economy

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The Bank of Russia has published results of a study on the dominant economic values of citizens. According to the regulator’s findings, the ideal for a significant portion of respondents is a self-sufficient “factory-country,” modeled after the Soviet Union or modern-day China. Those surveyed emphasize state sovereignty, industrial might, and total independence from foreign markets. Within this “nuclear economic narrative,” Russia is perceived as a country with limitless natural resources and rich human capital, which should allow it to produce all consumer goods domestically. Notably, Belarus also made the list of economic ideals, while the US economy is perceived as a “bubble of financial speculation” devoid of real production. Demand for state regulation and the fight against “greed” The study pays special attention to Russians’ views on inflation. Most respondents see the cause of rising prices not in monetary factors, but in “business greed” and the desire of intermediaries to “warm their hands” at the expense of others. The only effective method suggested to combat inflation is harsh administrative price regulation by the state. Respondents insist on the need to fix the cost of basic food items, clothing, medicines, and children’s goods. According to the Central Bank, such logic reflects deep distrust of market mechanisms and a yearning for a paternalistic management model where the state assumes full responsibility for the distribution of benefits and control over private sector profitability. Analytical summary: The rising popularity of the Soviet model signals a public disillusionment with the market economy amid sanction pressure. In 2026, this will increase public pressure on the government to freeze prices, which, if market laws are ignored, will inevitably lead to commodity shortages and a decline in product quality.

Kremlin uses profanity to reject Macron’s advisors on European role in Ukraine talks

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Emmanuel Macron’s advisors, Emmanuel Bonne and Bertrand Buchwalter, faced a harsh and profane rejection from the Kremlin during a February trip to Moscow regarding Europe’s involvement in Ukraine negotiations. According to Financial Times sources, the French envoys stated that the EU would not support a ceasefire agreement if it were not involved in the discussions, as the security of the entire region is at stake. However, Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the Russian President, reportedly rejected the overtures using vulgar language, telling them to “go f*** themselves.” The European diplomats insisted that without direct participation from Brussels, any ceasefire agreement would lack EU backing. In response, a senior European diplomat claimed Ushakov’s reply made it clear that Moscow had no interest in negotiating with European structures. The Kremlin’s stance and the lack of common ground Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the lack of common ground to the publication, stating that the French representatives “brought no positive signals.” According to Moscow’s version, European countries do not demonstrate a desire to facilitate a real peace process, which, from the Kremlin’s perspective, makes their participation in negotiations meaningless. This diplomatic escalation comes amid France’s attempts to position itself as a key mediator in Europe. However, the Kremlin’s sharp reaction confirms Moscow’s course toward negotiating exclusively with the US, ignoring European capitals as independent political players in matters of global security. Analytical summary: The Kremlin’s public diplomatic demarche marks a final breakdown of dialogue with the EU as an institution. In 2026, this will lead to even greater consolidation of European countries around military support for Ukraine, as political avenues for influencing Moscow have been completely blocked.

Russia establishes secret unit for political assassinations abroad

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In December 2022, a secret intelligence unit was formed in Russia, designed to carry out assassinations and abductions of Kremlin opponents abroad. According to an investigation by The Insider, the unit was officially named Center 795 (military unit 75127). The decision to create it was made by the General Staff to expand the capabilities of special services following the start of the full-scale war. The structure reports directly to the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. The Center comprises approximately 500 officers selected from elite units of the FSB (including “Alpha” and “Vympel”), the GRU, and the Belarusian KGB. This marks the first instance of large-scale operational cooperation between the Ministry of Defense and the FSB. Leadership was entrusted to former Alpha officer Denis Fisenko, while the core team consists of members from General Andrey Averyanov’s team, previously known for the operations of GRU unit 29155. Management structure and financial backing A distinctive feature of Center 795 is its financial model: in addition to official pay from the Ministry of Defense, officers receive supplemental payments through the Kalashnikov Concern. Salaries for rank-and-file officers reach 500,000 rubles, while leadership earns up to 3 million rubles per month. This autonomy allows the unit to operate independently of standard military chains of command. Experts link the emergence of the Center to the need for expanding the geography of clandestine operations amid Russia’s growing isolation and the increased activity of opposition groups abroad. Analytical summary: The creation of Center 795 marks a transition to state-sponsored terror as a standard tool of foreign intelligence. In 2026, the activities of this structure will become a key destabilizing factor in Europe and the CIS, requiring Western intelligence agencies to revise their security protocols.