дефицита

The Russian ruble has begun its fifth consecutive week of decline despite a sharp rise in Russian oil prices, which are trading above $70 per barrel at Russian ports and nearly $100 in India. On the Moscow Exchange this Monday, the yuan hit a peak since September of last year (11.84 rubles). The over-the-counter dollar rate reached 81.51 rubles, while the euro exceeded 93 rubles for the first time since January 2026.

Analysts attribute this weakness to a reduction in state support for the exchange rate. On March 4, 2026, the Ministry of Finance suspended currency sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) under the “budget rule” to preserve the fund’s remaining assets, from which two-thirds of liquid assets have already been withdrawn to plug budget gaps since the war began.

Budget deficit vs. exchange rate stability

Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance notes that the market has lost a regular supply of foreign currency from the state, estimated at 200 billion rubles. This loss of liquidity automatically increases volatility and puts downward pressure on the ruble.

Andrey Khokhrin, CEO of Ivolga Capital, highlights a fundamental contradiction: a strong ruble is incompatible with Russia’s chronic budget deficit. To cover financial shortfalls, a weaker currency is more beneficial for the state, as it translates export revenues into a larger amount of rubles.

Analytical summary: In March 2026, the Russian currency market entered a phase of “manual control” due to the depletion of NWF reserves. The ruble’s weakening despite high oil prices confirms that the regime’s fiscal interests (budget filling) now dominate over macroeconomic stability, which will inevitably spur inflation and further reduce real household income.