In response to a critical crisis in the oil refining sector, Russian authorities are effectively reviving Soviet economic management practices. The Ministry of Energy will now issue mandatory production and shipment quotas for oil companies. This move follows persistent drone strikes that disabled approximately 20% of refinery capacity in 2025 and paralyzed five additional major plants in the last month alone.
Key Features of the New System:
- Mandatory Targets: Companies will receive “orders” for the production and shipment of Class 5 gasoline and diesel, formalized through direct agreements with the Ministry.
- Domestic Market Priority: The state will strictly dictate the ratio of supplies for the domestic market versus export and exchange sales.
- Price Caps: Gas station prices are now under rigid state control; oil companies must keep price increases within official inflation limits, despite rising VAT and excise taxes.
Major Refineries Halted in Early 2026:
- Kinef (Leningrad Region) – 20 million tons/year (2nd largest in Russia).
- Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez – 17 million tons/year (4th largest).
- Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, and Tuapse refineries.
Notably, the shift in economic priorities is reflected elsewhere: drones and UAVs are now being purchased even by institutions far removed from technical fields, such as the Moscow Academy of Choreography and kindergartens in the Tyumen and Perm regions. In these curricula, drone piloting is framed as an “additional developmental activity.”
Analytical Summary
The transition to a “State Plan” (Gosplan) in the oil industry marks the exhaustion of market mechanisms under wartime conditions. When strikes destroy primary processing units (AVT), physical gaps emerge in the supply chain. In 2025, gasoline prices jumped by 12.7%, more than double the official inflation rate of 5.6%.
By enforcing mandatory production plans, the state is effectively distributing losses across the sector. Oil companies are forced to supply the domestic market at fixed prices while losing high-margin export revenue due to infrastructure damage. In the long term, this will lead to underfunding for repairs and modernization; in the short term, it transforms fuel from a commodity into a strictly rationed state resource.