Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, faced a nearly fourfold drop in net profit by the end of 2025. According to IFRS reporting, the company earned 293 billion rubles, compared to 1.084 trillion the previous year. In the fourth quarter alone, profits plummeted tenfold.
Key Financial Indicators of the Decline:
- Net Profit: Fell from 1.084 trillion to 293 billion rubles (-73%).
- Revenue: Decreased by 19% to 8.236 trillion rubles.
- EBITDA: Dropped by 28% to 2.173 trillion rubles.
- Free Cash Flow: Halved to 700 billion rubles.
- Urals Price: In late 2025, the price of Russian Urals crude fell below $40 per barrel, rendering approximately 50% of Russian oil fields unprofitable.
Analytical Summary:
Rosneft’s report is a diagnosis of the entire Russian commodity model under isolation and prolonged war.
Sechin vs. Central Bank: CEO Igor Sechin’s public complaints about the “high key interest rate” expose a rift between the state industrial sector and financial regulators. Rosneft’s massive debt load, combined with expensive credit, is effectively “eating” all operating profits. The company can no longer simultaneously serve its own appetites and the state’s strategic goals.
End of Superprofits: The fourfold profit drop translates into a sharp reduction in dividends and tax contributions. This creates a massive hole in the 2026 budget, which the Kremlin will have to fill either through the printing press or by further increasing taxes on the population and businesses. Without Western technology, the “Vostok Oil” project is becoming a financial liability rather than a driver of growth.