Russia’s federal budget revenues from oil and gas—accounting for a fifth of the state treasury’s total income—are set to rise by 0.23 trillion rubles (+38%) in April 2026 compared to March, reaching 0.85 trillion rubles, according to Reuters calculations. Despite this monthly jump, revenues are expected to be 22% lower (0.24 trillion rubles less) than in April 2025.
Key Drivers of the April Growth:
- Global Market Volatility: A sharp rise in global oil prices during March, fueled by the conflict in the Middle East, boosted budget receipts.
- NDPI (Mineral Extraction Tax): This tax will provide the largest boost, increasing by 91% (to 0.4 trillion rubles) compared to March figures.
- Rising Urals Price: The tax-calculation price of Russian crude surged to $77.00 per barrel in March, up from $44.59 in February and significantly higher than the $58.99 recorded in March 2025.
Analytical Summary:
The April surge in oil and gas revenues is a temporary “breather” for the Russian budget, driven entirely by external geopolitical factors. The treasury is receiving extra funds not due to increased production or efficiency, but because of a “war premium” on energy prices triggered by instability in the Middle East.
However, the 22% year-on-year decline is a sobering statistic. It confirms that even with high global benchmarks, the Russian energy sector is struggling with rising logistics costs and the impact of sanctions. For the government, this means the budget deficit remains a systemic threat, and the temporary windfall will likely do little to offset the overall trend of shrinking export margins. The treasury’s growing dependence on volatile foreign conflicts makes long-term fiscal planning increasingly fragile.