Armenia may withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) if Russia raises gas prices, stated Alen Simonyan, Speaker of the Armenian Parliament. “I must say that if they make such a decision, Armenia will make its own and finally leave the CSTO and the EAEU,” he said during a briefing. This ultimatum follows a recent “effective” discussion between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin, where the future of bilateral relations was debated amidst Armenia’s strategic pivot toward the European Union.
Key details of the political crisis:
- Economic leverage as a breaking point: Simonyan’s statement directly links Armenia’s loyalty to the EAEU with energy pricing. If Moscow chooses to use its “gas baton,” Yerevan intends to respond by legally exiting these integration structures.
- Outcome of Pashinyan-Putin talks: Despite the harsh rhetoric, Simonyan noted a “good conversation” between the leaders on April 1. However, Pashinyan confirmed the freezing of Armenia’s participation in the CSTO, citing the organization’s inaction during the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.
- The path to European integration: Armenian leadership is explicitly stating that the choice between the EAEU and the EU rests with the citizens, effectively signaling a potential referendum on changing the country’s foreign policy vector.
Analytical Summary:
The threat to exit the EAEU over gas prices marks Armenia’s transition from political “freezing” to economic counter-blackmail in response to Moscow’s pressure.
The end of the monopoly of fear: For a long time, it was assumed that dependence on Russian gas and CSTO security made Armenia’s exit impossible. Today, Yerevan is demonstrating that it is willing to pay market prices for gas in exchange for political independence. While the CSTO has already de facto lost Armenia, the EAEU—the last project keeping the country within Russia’s orbit—is now under threat.
The Karabakh Syndrome: The CSTO’s inaction during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has become a point of no return for Armenian society. Pashinyan uses this argument as an irrefutable justification for rapprochement with the West. The rhetoric of “we cannot explain the union’s inaction to our people” serves as a legitimate tool to dismantle allied obligations without losing domestic support.
Transition to Europe: Simonyan’s reference to the “people’s choice” suggests that the groundwork is being laid for an official withdrawal from pro-Russian blocs. If Russia raises gas prices, it will be presented domestically as an “act of aggression,” providing the government with the necessary mandate to formally apply for EU candidacy.