The Russian government has temporarily suspended the reform of the budget rule, despite the critical state of the treasury in early 2026. According to Reuters sources, the pause is caused by a sharp increase in global oil prices against the backdrop of a military conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran.
The situation in the budget sector remains tense: for January–February 2026, revenues from energy carriers decreased by 47% in annual terms. The budget deficit for the first two months reached 3.45 trillion rubles, which is 1.5% of GDP (with an approved annual plan of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.6% of GDP).
Key aspects of the current discussion:
- Cut-off price: For the current year, the parameter is fixed at $59 per barrel. Previously, the Ministry of Finance planned to reduce it to $55 by 2030 to minimize the impact of sanctions.
- Sequestering expenditures: The discussed 10% reduction in unprotected budget items (excluding defense and social spending) has been put on pause for now.
- NWF: The mechanism for purchasing currency and gold for the National Wealth Fund will resume only if the actual market price exceeds the set threshold.
Summary: The authorities are betting on the external environment and geopolitical instability, hoping to close the budget hole through the “war premium” in oil quotes, instead of carrying out the overdue optimization of expenditures.