The aggressor’s financial system is entering a tailspin. In January-February 2026, the federal treasury recorded a deficit of 3.449 trillion rubles—nearly 1.5 times higher than the same period last year. The Ministry of Finance admits that oil and gas revenues have plummeted by half, to 826 billion rubles, driven by falling prices and forced production cuts.
The Budget Gap and Inflation Trap
The situation is critical: the state is spending nearly twice as much as it collects in taxes—8.21 trillion compared to 4.76 trillion rubles. Non-commodity revenues formally grew by 4.1%, but in real terms, adjusted for inflation, they actually shrank by 1.6%. In just two months, the deficit has nearly hit the full-year target of 3.78 trillion rubles, casting doubt on the fulfillment of any social obligations.
Sequestration for the Sake of War
Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at CEPA, notes that the budget has already been “torn to shreds.” For Europe, it is clear that Moscow’s resource base is exhausted. To save the situation, authorities are preparing to sequester civilian spending and alter budget rules to drain what remains of the National Welfare Fund. Since military spending remains untouchable, healthcare, education, and small business support will be “put under the knife.” Russia is finalizing its transition to a self-consuming economic model, sacrificing its own future to sustain continued aggression.