Over the past weekend, April 4 and 5, 2026, 21 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz—the highest two-day figure since early March, when movement in this strategic artery nearly halted due to the military operation launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. According to Bloomberg, the resumption of traffic was made possible by active negotiations between Tehran and governments facing acute energy shortages. The agency emphasizes that the very fact of these negotiations strengthens Iran’s grip over the strait.
Key details of the current situation:
- Iranian Filter: Transit rights are now primarily granted to vessels whose governments have established diplomatic contact with Tehran. This de facto legalizes Iran’s control over international waters amidst the ongoing conflict.
- Convoy Composition: For the first time in weeks, the strait saw not only Iranian vessels but also a tanker carrying Iraqi oil and several LNG carriers bound for India.
- Scale of the Collapse: Despite the “record,” current traffic is only 7–8% of pre-war levels. Before the conflict, an average of 135 vessels passed through daily; currently, that number is approximately 10.
Analytical Summary:
The surge in traffic in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates a new reality where global energy security depends on the ability of individual nations to negotiate with Iran, bypassing U.S. sanctions.
Legitimization Through Blockade: Iran is using the strait as a “diplomatic exchange.” By agreeing to let tankers pass to India or other nations, Tehran is fracturing the unity of the anti-Iranian coalition. Countries desperate for energy are forced to recognize Iran’s agency in the strait, undermining U.S. efforts to achieve total isolation of the regime.
Survival Economics vs. Military Might: Even under massive strikes from Israel and the U.S., Iran retains the capability to physically block or permit vessel transit. This renders the allies’ military operation less effective: while infrastructure can be destroyed, ensuring the safety of civilian shipping without Tehran’s consent remains nearly impossible.
Fragile Balance for India and Asia: The fact that the primary beneficiaries of this “thaw” are LNG carriers for India indicates Iran’s attempt to maintain the loyalty of key Asian players. For New Delhi and Beijing, the Strait of Hormuz remains an indispensable route, and their willingness to negotiate with Tehran creates a significant geopolitical dilemma for the United States.