Despite the easing of US sanctions against Russian oil and the rise in prices for domestic grades to $70-80 per barrel, the ruble accelerated its decline against key global currencies. On Friday, the yuan exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose to 11.69 rubles (the highest since September), the dollar on the over-the-counter market climbed to 80.66 rubles, and the euro to 92.47 rubles.
Since the beginning of March, the ruble has lost almost 5% against the yuan and about 4% against the dollar, closing in the red for the fourth consecutive week. The primary driver of this weakening was the decision to halt currency sales from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) to cover the budget deficit.
Suspension of currency interventions and the state of the NWF
The Ministry of Finance suspended currency sales as of March 6, which in recent months had reached a record $2 billion per month. According to VTB estimates, this decision could weaken the ruble by another 10% against the yuan.
This measure is intended to preserve the remaining assets of the NWF, whose liquid assets have decreased 2.5 times since the start of the military conflict, while foreign currency reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since 2008.
Analytical summary: The suspension of interventions to save NWF reserves leaves the ruble without support, making it a hostage to the budget deficit. In 2026, this will inevitably trigger an inflationary spiral and further devaluation regardless of oil price levels.