The ambitious program to revive Russia’s civil aviation industry, which the Kremlin hoped would yield hundreds of domestic liners to replace Western aircraft, has been delayed once again. The updated plan for the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) now aims to produce approximately 570 aircraft by 2035. This marks a five-year delay from the original 2030 deadline and a nearly 50% reduction in target volume.
The Reality Check:
- Original 2022 Plan: Over 1,000 aircraft by 2030 (609 from UAC).
- Updated 2026 Plan: ~570 aircraft by 2035.
- Actual Output (2022–2025): Only 13 aircraft delivered (12 Superjets and 1 Tu-214 for government use).
Delivery Structure (First Batch of 70):
- MS-21: 18 units.
- SSJ-New (Import-substituted): 42 units.
- Tu-214: 11 units.
- Il-114-300: 3 units.
Analytical Summary:
The “shift to the right” (delays) in production schedules has become a chronic condition for the Russian aviation industry. The current move to 2035 is an admission that mass production of modern liners is impossible under total sanctions and without a reliable domestic component base.
Technological Deadlock: The primary hurdles remain the mass production of fully Russian engines (the PD-14 for the MS-21 and PD-8 for the Superjet) and onboard avionics. Despite four years of “import substitution,” the industry has failed to transition from assembling single prototypes to a functional assembly line.
Cannibalization vs. Creation: While UAC builds plans for the next decade, the existing fleet of Western planes (Boeing and Airbus) continues to degrade. By 2035, most current airframes will be decommissioned. 570 new planes will be physically insufficient to cover the country’s transportation needs, likely leading to a massive shortage of seats and the closure of regional routes.