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Armenia Threatens to Exit CSTO and EAEU if Russia Increases Gas Prices

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Armenia may withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) if Russia raises gas prices, stated Alen Simonyan, Speaker of the Armenian Parliament. “I must say that if they make such a decision, Armenia will make its own and finally leave the CSTO and the EAEU,” he said during a briefing. This ultimatum follows a recent “effective” discussion between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Vladimir Putin, where the future of bilateral relations was debated amidst Armenia’s strategic pivot toward the European Union. Key details of the political crisis: Analytical Summary: The threat to exit the EAEU over gas prices marks Armenia’s transition from political “freezing” to economic counter-blackmail in response to Moscow’s pressure. The end of the monopoly of fear: For a long time, it was assumed that dependence on Russian gas and CSTO security made Armenia’s exit impossible. Today, Yerevan is demonstrating that it is willing to pay market prices for gas in exchange for political independence. While the CSTO has already de facto lost Armenia, the EAEU—the last project keeping the country within Russia’s orbit—is now under threat. The Karabakh Syndrome: The CSTO’s inaction during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis has become a point of no return for Armenian society. Pashinyan uses this argument as an irrefutable justification for rapprochement with the West. The rhetoric of “we cannot explain the union’s inaction to our people” serves as a legitimate tool to dismantle allied obligations without losing domestic support. Transition to Europe: Simonyan’s reference to the “people’s choice” suggests that the groundwork is being laid for an official withdrawal from pro-Russian blocs. If Russia raises gas prices, it will be presented domestically as an “act of aggression,” providing the government with the necessary mandate to formally apply for EU candidacy.

Death in the “Shadow Fleet”: GRU General Andrey Averyanov Liquidated in Libya

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According to the French radio station RFI, a high-ranking GRU officer, Andrey Averyanov, was killed in a strike on the tanker Qendil in December 2025. The General, known as the curator of the most high-profile operations abroad (including activities in Africa following the death of Prigozhin), was on board the vessel accompanied by ten intelligence officers disguised as crew members. Key details of the operation and consequences: Analytical Summary: The death of Andrey Averyanov represents the most significant blow to the GRU since the end of the Cold War. Decapitation of the “Africa Corps”: Averyanov was the central figure in reassembling Russian assets in Africa. His death creates a leadership vacuum in Libya, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where Moscow is attempting to build a new architecture of influence. Without his personal connections and iron-fisted control, Russia’s expansion in the region is likely to stall. Tankers as legitimate targets: The use of civilian vessels to transport high-ranking intelligence command is a sign of a shortage of secure travel channels. However, the “shadow fleet” has now officially ceased to be “invisible” to the intelligence services of Ukraine and the West. The strike on the Qendil sets a precedent: any vessel circumventing sanctions is now viewed as a military target. Proxy war on new frontiers: The geography of the conflict has expanded to Libya and Turkey. Russia is shifting to a tactic of direct terror against Ukraine’s allies (as in the case of al-Haddad), which could lead to even greater isolation of Moscow in the Mediterranean. Libya, long a playground for Russian maneuvers, is transforming into a hunting zone for GRU operatives.

“No Peaceful Times Possible”: Lukashenko Announces Belarus is Preparing for War

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On April 1, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated during a meeting following a comprehensive audit of the Armed Forces that the country is preparing for war, emphasizing that “there can be no peaceful time.” The meeting involved approximately 300 high-ranking officials and focused on the results of “unprecedentedly large-scale and rigorous” military drills. Key Points from the Speech: Analytical Summary: Lukashenko’s rhetoric marks a transition from Belarus being a “rear base” to a regime of direct preparation for a major military conflict. Synchronization with the Kremlin: This announcement coincides with leaks about Putin’s plans to continue the war for at least two more years. Minsk is effectively confirming its role as a “second front,” designed to constantly divert Ukrainian and NATO forces by creating a permanent threat from the north. Internal Mobilization: The phrase about people “shelling out money” is an attempt to legitimize a sharp increase in military spending and the subsequent decline in living standards. Lukashenko is conditioning society to believe that economic hardships are secondary to the “threat of war.” Risk of Direct Involvement: The scale and “rigor” of the audits indicate that the Belarusian army is undergoing the coordination phase necessary for actual combat operations. If Belarus was previously a “logistics hub,” it is now preparing for a scenario where its units could be deployed to cover Russian flanks or participate in a new offensive.

Diplomatic Dissonance: Russian MFA Falsifies Lavrov’s Interview with French Television

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The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has come under fire for systematically distorting the translation of an interview given by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the French public broadcaster France 2. According to FranceInfo, the version published on the MFA’s official YouTube channel ascribes statements to journalist Léa Salamé that she never made, while fundamentally altering the context of her questions to align with Kremlin propaganda. Documented Discrepancies: Diplomatic Analysis: The substitution of theses in an official translation is a symptom of a profound degradation in diplomatic protocol. Historically, diplomacy has relied on the precision of language; when a foreign ministry resorts to overt falsification of an interviewer’s words, it signals an inability to engage in honest international discourse. This tactic is primarily intended for domestic consumption, aiming to project an image of a “victorious” Lavrov who commands the respect and agreement of even the most critical Western journalists. However, the reputational cost is high: such public exposure by France Télévisions renders the Russian MFA a “toxic” interlocutor, further isolating the department from the global media landscape.

Moldovan Parliament Approves Final Exit from the CIS Agreements

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The Parliament of Moldova has passed laws denouncing the Agreement on the Creation of the CIS and the Commonwealth Charter in their second and final reading. The decision was supported by 60 out of 101 MPs, primarily from the pro-European “Action and Solidarity” party and its allies, marking a definitive break from the Moscow-led bloc. Details of the Exit: Analytical Summary: Moldova’s exit from the CIS is more than a formality; it is a geopolitical sentence for the Kremlin’s “soft power” in Eastern Europe. Collapse of the Integration Project: The CIS is transforming into a “regional club” for Central Asia and Belarus, completely losing its western flank. Moldova’s example proves that membership is no longer seen as a guarantee of security or economic benefit, but rather as a toxic barrier to modernization. Synchronization with Ukraine: By following Kyiv’s path, Chisinau is helping create a unified democratic cordon on Russia’s western borders. Moscow’s influence in the region is plummeting toward zero, as its attempts to use the CIS to keep neighbors in its orbit have demonstrably failed.

Putin’s Main EU Ally on the Brink of Losing Power After “Kremlin Leak” Scandal

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The electoral prospects of Viktor Orbán’s party continue to plummet ahead of the April 12 elections, following a scandal involving revealed regular “reports” from Hungarian leaders to the Kremlin. The Collapse of Fidesz in Numbers: Analytical Summary: For the Kremlin, an Orbán defeat would mean losing its primary tool for sabotage within the EU and NATO. The Toxicity of “Friendship with Moscow”: The Hungarian case demonstrates that a direct link to Putin is becoming political suicide, even in countries with strong populist traditions. While Orbán previously balanced his rhetoric by securing cheap energy, evidence of “reporting” to the Kremlin has transformed him from a “sovereign leader” into an “agent of influence” in the eyes of Hungarian voters. End of the Sabotage Strategy: For years, Orbán blocked aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. A victory for Peter Magyar and the Tisza party could instantly unblock European integration and defense processes that Budapest has held hostage for years.

Putin Plans to Continue War for Two More Years and Orders New Offensive in Ukraine

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The Russian army is preparing for a new offensive in Ukraine amid stalled peace negotiations, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with Kremlin discussions. According to one source, the conflict—which has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War—could continue for another one to two years unless a breakthrough is achieved at the negotiating table. Key Aspects of the Kremlin’s Strategy: Analytical Summary: The decision to prolong the war for another two years confirms that the Russian regime has shifted into a mode of “existence for the sake of the process,” rather than a specific result. Information Blockade as a Precursor: The tightening of internet controls is a classic preparation for unpopular measures. Closing the information space is essential for the Kremlin to minimize protests during a potential new wave of conscription. The Offensive Trap: Preparing for a “new offensive” that even Kremlin insiders doubt will succeed appears to be a move for the regime’s political survival. Without real victories, Putin must maintain the illusion of progress to justify the transition to “war-time laws” previously mentioned by Senator Klishas. For society, this means two more years of living under the shadow of deficits, inflation, and the fear of mobilization.

Living by “War Laws” Permanently: Senator Klishas Announces Post-War Retention of Restrictions

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Andrey Klishas, head of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation, delivered a programmatic statement in an interview with RBC: a significant portion of the repressive norms and restrictions introduced in Russia after 2022 will remain in force for years, perhaps forever. According to Klishas, the authorities do not plan an automatic return to peacetime legal standards. Every restriction will be tested for “relevance” and “usefulness.” Key points from Klishas’s statement: Analytical Summary: Klishas’s statement is more than a legal commentary; it is a strategic warning to Europe. Russia is officially codifying a model of “permanent mobilization.” The “Useful Norms” Trap: When the government labels the restriction of citizens’ rights as “useful,” it means the repressive apparatus developed during the war has become the bedrock of state governance. This “emergency state” is becoming the new normal. It is a clear signal that the Kremlin has no intention of returning to a global system of checks, balances, and legal guarantees. The Threat of Latent Aggression: Maintaining military laws even if the conflict in Ukraine is formally concluded (or frozen) is a classic preparation for a new round of aggression. A military machine and a legal field adapted for war do not “disarm” for no reason. If the legislation remains on a war footing, it implies that the regime’s objectives extend far beyond current borders. A Warning for the West: Europe must realize that any verbal “de-escalation” from the RF will be accompanied by further internal hardening of the regime. This creates a “coiled spring” scenario: an economy shifted to 12-hour workdays (as proposed by Deripaska) and a society living by martial law will eventually require new external enemies to justify continued hardships. This makes the risk of aggression against the Baltic states or Poland not just possible, but a logical extension of the Kremlin’s domestic policy in the medium term.

Slovak Opposition: Police Launch Treason Investigation into PM Robert Fico

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Political tensions in Slovakia have reached a boiling point as law enforcement authorities have officially launched an investigation into sitting Prime Minister Robert Fico. According to Branislav Gröhling, leader of the opposition Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party, the head of government is suspected of high treason and several other serious crimes. Details of the Case: Analytical Summary: The treason investigation against a sitting Prime Minister is an unprecedented challenge to political stability, not only for Slovakia but for all of Central Europe. The End of “Immunity”: Robert Fico, known for his harsh rhetoric against military aid to Ukraine and his pivot toward “Orban-style” governance, is facing systemic resistance from within his own country. The transfer of the case to the police suggests that prosecutors see enough merit in the allegations to warrant a formal investigation that cannot be easily dismissed through administrative leverage. Foreign Policy Echoes: Often described as a “pro-Russian” politician, Fico’s actions are now being legally scrutinized as a potential sacrifice of national security. By aligning his energy policy so closely with Moscow’s interests at the expense of regional stability, he has provided the opposition with a potent legal weapon. For the EU and NATO, this case serves as a litmus test for the resilience of Slovakia’s democratic institutions. Risk of Civil Confrontation: The sheer volume of signatories—13,000—highlights a profound rift in Slovak society. If the investigation yields concrete evidence, Slovakia faces two likely paths: the collapse of the government followed by a protracted political crisis, or an attempt by Fico to drastically consolidate power to survive, which would lead to the country’s further marginalization within the European Union.

Politico: Russia Deploys Network of Saboteur Training Camps in the Balkans

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Russia has established a network of secret training camps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Serbia, to prepare agents aimed at destabilizing Europe. According to Politico, citing an investigation by Moldovan intelligence services, this network was used to train spies in tactics for mass unrest and sabotage. Dozens have already been detained in Moldova, and traces of these “graduates” lead to acts of sabotage in France and Germany. Details of the Training Program: Analytical Summary: The discovery of this camp network in the Balkans is direct evidence of the Kremlin’s transition to the “kinetic” phase of hybrid warfare in Europe. The Balkan Bridgehead: Using Bosnia and Herzegovina (primarily the Republika Srpska) and Serbia as training bases highlights the vulnerability of this region. Russia exploits weak security controls and the political loyalty of local elites to create “gray zones” where combat groups can be prepared with impunity right under NATO’s nose. Moldova as a Proving Ground: The primary strike of this network was directed at Chișinău. The attempt to organize mass unrest using trained saboteurs is a classic “soft coup” scenario designed to halt the republic’s European integration. A Threat to the EU Core: The fact that graduates from these Balkan camps have already “surfaced” in Germany and France indicates that the network was not created solely for local Moldovan needs. Russia is building an infrastructure for long-term terror, utilizing cheap mercenary labor. This will force European intelligence services to radically reconsider how they monitor “political tourism” and Russian-speaking diasporas, which will inevitably lead to a new round of tightened visa and policing measures within the EU.